Odds

The odds in favor of an event or a proposition are expressed as the ratio of a pair of integers, which is the ratio of the probability that an event will happen to the probability that it will not happen. For example, the odds that a randomly chosen day of the week is a Sunday are one to six, which is sometimes written 1:6, or 1/6. In probability theory and statistics, where the variable p is the probability in favor of the event, and the probability against the event is therefore 1-p, the odds of the event are the quotient of the two, or p/(1-p). That value may be regarded as the relative likelihood the event will happen, expressed as a fraction if it is less than 1, or a multiple if it is equal to or greater than one of the likelihood that the event will not happen. In the example just given, saying the odds of a Sunday are one to six or, less commonly, one-sixth means the probability of picking a Sunday randomly is one-sixth the probability of not picking a Sunday. While the mathematical probability of an event has a value in the range from zero to one, the odds in favor of that same event lie between zero and infinity. The odds against the event with probability given as p are (1-p)/p.

The odds against Sunday are 6:1 or 6/1 = 6: it is 6 times as likely that a random day is not a Sunday. Hence 'odds' are an expression of relative probabilities. Generally 'odds' are quoted in this format odds against rather than as odds in favor of, because of the possibility of confusion of the latter with the fractional probability of an event occurring. E.g., the probability of a random day of the week is a Sunday is 'one-seventh' 1/7. A bookmaker may for his own purposes use 'odds' of 'one-sixth', but the overwhelming everyday use by most people is odds of the form 6 to 1, 6-1, 6:1, or 6/1 all read as 'six-to-one' where the first figure represents the number of ways of failing to achieve the outcome and the second figure is the number of ways of achieving a favorable outcome: thus these are odds against. In other words, an event with m to n odds against would have probability n/ m + n, while an event with m to n odds on would have probability m/ m + n. Even in probability theory, odds may be more natural or more convenient than probabilities. This is in particular the case in problems of sequential decision making as for instance in problems of how to stop online on a last specific event, which is solved by the odds algorithm.

In some games of chance, using odds against is also the most convenient way to understand what winnings will be paid if the selection is successful: the winner will be paid 'six' of whatever stake unit was bet for each 'one' of the stake unit wagered. For example, a winning bet of 10 at 6/1 will win '6 × 10 = 60' with the original 10 stake also being returned. Betting odds are skewed to ensure that the bookmaker makes a profit—if true odds were offered the bookmaker would break even in the long run—so the numbers do not represent the true odds.

Odds on means that the event is more likely to happen than not. This is sometimes expressed with the smaller number first 1:2 but more often using the word on 2:1 on meaning that the event is twice as likely to happen as not.

Decimal presentation

Taking an event with a 1 in 5 probability of occurring i.e. a probability of 1/5, 0.2 or 20%, then the odds are 0.2 / 1 − 0.2 = 0.2 / 0.8 = 0.25. This figure 0.25 represents the monetary stake necessary for a person to gain one monetary unit on a successful wager when offered fair odds. This may be scaled up by any convenient factor to give whole number values. For example, if a stake of 0.25 wins 1 unit, then scaling by a factor of four means a stake of 1 wins 4 units.

Ratio presentation

Fixed odds gambling tends to represent the probability as fractional odds, and excludes the stake. For example, 0.20 is represented as 4 to 1 against written as 4-1, 4:1, or 4/1, since there are five outcomes of which four are unsuccessful. Thus, the stake returned must be added to the odds to compute the entire return of a successful bet. In craps, the payout would be represented as 5 for 1, and in money line odds as +400 representing the gain from a 100 stake.

By contrast, for an event with a 4 in 5 probability of occurring i.e. a probability of 4/5, 0.8 or 80%, then the odds are 0.8 / 1 − 0.8 = 4. If one bets 4 units at these odds and the event occurs, one receives back 1 unit plus the original unit 4 units stake. This would be presented in fractional odds of 4 to 1 on'' written as 1/4 or 1–4 , in decimal odds as 1.25 to include the returned stake, in craps as 5 for 4, and in money line odds as −400 representing the stake necessary to gain 100.

Fixed odds are not necessarily presented in the lowest possible terms; if there is a pattern of odds of 5–4, 7–4 and so on, odds which are mathematically 3–2 are more easily compared if expressed in the mathematically equivalent form 6–4. Similarly, 10–3 may be stated as 100–30.

Gambling odds versus probabilities

In gambling, the odds on display do not represent the true chances that the event will occur, but are the amounts that the bookmaker will pay out on winning bets. In formulating his odds to display the bookmaker will have included a profit margin which effectively means that the payout to a successful bettor is less than that represented by the true chance of the event occurring. This profit is known as the 'over-round' on the 'book' the 'book' refers to the old-fashioned ledger in which wagers were recorded, and is the derivation of the term 'bookmaker' and relates to the sum of the 'odds' in the following way:

In a 3-horse race, for example, the true probabilities of each of the horses winning based on their relative abilities may be 50%, 40% and 10%. These are simply the bookmaker's 'odds' multiplied by 100% for convenience. The total of these three percentages is 100%, thus representing a fair 'book'. The true odds against winning for each of the three horses are 1-1, 3-2 and 9-1 respectively. In order to generate a profit on the wagers accepted by the bookmaker he may decide to increase the values to 60%, 50% and 20% for the three horses, representing odds against of 4-6, 1-1 and 4-1. These values now total 130%, meaning that the book has an over round of 30 130 − 100. This value of 30 represents the amount of profit for the bookmaker if he accepts bets in the correct proportions on each of the horses. The art of bookmaking is that he will take in, for example, $130 in wagers and only pay $100 back including stakes no matter which horse wins.

Profiting in gambling involves predicting the relationship of the true probabilities to the payout odds. Sports information services are often used by professional and semi-professional sports bettors to help achieve this goal.

The odds or amounts the bookmaker will pay are determined by the total amount that has been bet on all of the possible events. They reflect the balance of wagers on either side of the event, and include the deduction of a bookmaker’s brokerage fee vig or vigorish.

Card Games Rules

A new card game starts in a small way, either as someone's invention, or as a modification of an existing game. Those playing it may agree to change the rules as they wish. The rules that they agree on become the house rules under which they play the game. A set of house rules may be accepted as valid by a group of players wherever they play, as it may also be accepted as governing all play within a particular house, café, or club.

When a game becomes sufficiently popular, so that people often play it with strangers, there is a need for a generally accepted set of rules. This need is often met when a particular set of house rules becomes generally recognized. For example, when Whist became popular in 18th-century England, players in the Portland Club agreed on a set of house rules for use on its premises. Players in some other clubs then agreed to follow the Portland Club rules, rather than go to the trouble of codifying and printing their own sets of rules. The Portland Club rules eventually became generally accepted throughout England and Western cultures.

It should be noted that there is nothing static or official about this process. For the majority of games, there is no one set of universal rules by which the game is played, and the most common ruleset is no more or less than that. Many widely played card games, such as Canasta and Pinochle, have no official regulating body. The most common ruleset is often determined by the most popular distribution of rulebooks for card games. Perhaps the original compilation of popular playing card games was collected by Edmund Hoyle, a self-made authority on many popular parlor games. The U.S. Playing Card Company now owns the eponymous Hoyle brand, and publishes a series of rulebooks for various families of card games that have largely standardized the games' rules in countries and languages where the rulebooks are widely distributed. However, players are free to, and often do, invent house rules to supplement or even largely replace the standard rules.

If there is a sense in which a card game can have an official set of rules, it is when that card game has an official governing body. For example, the rules of tournament bridge are governed by the World Bridge Federation, and by local bodies in various countries such as the American Contract Bridge League in the U.S., and the English Bridge Union in England. The rules of skat are governed by The International Skat Players Association and in Germany by the Deutscher Skatverband which publishes the Skatordnung. The rules of French tarot are governed by the Fédération Française de Tarot. The rules of Poker's variants are largely traditional, but enforced by the World Series of Poker and the World Poker Tour organizations which sponsor tournament play. Even in these cases, the rules must only be followed exactly at games sanctioned by these governing bodies; players in less formal settings are free to implement agreed-upon supplemental or substitute rules at will.

 

Caribbean Stud Poker

Caribbean Stud poker is a casino table game with rules similar to five-card stud poker. However, unlike standard poker games, Caribbean stud is played against the house rather than against other players. There is no bluffing or other deception.

As a result of the popularity of poker, casinos created a house banked game known as Caribbean Stud Poker in order to lure poker fans to play more table games. The birth of the game is not well referenced, which is unusual for a relatively new game. Gambling genius David Sklansky has laid claim to formulating the game on a well-known poker forum, positing that he invented the game in 1982 using the name “Casino Poker”. When he developed the game the rules had some differences like, the dealer having two hole cards revealed instead of only one hole card revealed as in Caribbean Stud today. Likewise there was no progressive jackpot in the game he allegedly founded. Sklansky was unable to patent Casino Poker due to patent laws, according to the story. A few years afterwards he was approached by a poker player who brought the game to Aruba and had it patented. The poker player and a casino owner changed the rules slightly to form what we experience nowadays as

Another story details that many people claim they played the game under a different name on a cruise ship going to Aruba, before it was known as Caribbean Stud. The proprietor of the now 'Excelsior Casino' is believed to have bought the game after it was discovered on the cruise ship. The casino at the time was known as 'The King International'. This new game has developed a tremendous interest from tourists in its short history. Fanatics of the game flock to Aruba yearly to play some Caribbean Stud at its home.

The true story of how the game as it is played today came into being goes back to 1987 when a gambler named James Suttle learned the game from a down on his luck poker player while playing Texas Holdem at Binion's Horseshoe on Fremont Street in Downtown Las Vegas. The Player offered to teach Suttle the game if he would lend him $5,000.00. James Suttle denies this. James who was a friend of casino owner and game developer Danny Jones, gave the man the loan because he knew that he could sell the game to Jones for a hefty profit. Jones owned the King International Casino in Aruba which latter became the Grand Holiday Casino. The casino was located in the Holiday Inn on Palm Beach in Aruba which was a favorite layover for many cruise lines. Danny began to market the game with minimal success to other casinos and cruise ships under the company D&D Gaming Patients. It wasn't until computer software engineer Michael Titus told Jones that his game needed a linked progressive Jackpot that the game took off. Titus was playing Poker with Jones at the Horseshoe when during a casual conversation about the game including discussion about the games strengths and weaknesses they determined that the game was too strong for the house and players needed an enticement to play in spite of the games favor for the house. It has been a long standing tradition in the gaming industry to add large or progressive jackpots to games that offer weaker returns to the player. The advantage of a progressive jackpot is that it almost always pays for itself through player contributions. In slot machine play this is easily accomplished as the gaming machine is such a key element to the game, on table games this had never been done in a real time environment. Poker games have had progressive Bad Beat jackpots for a long time, but these were calculated on a daily or weekly basis from a jackpot rake at a predetermined period of time. Jones and Titus roughed out the method by which the new game would be implemented and created the first live progressive linked jackpot on a table game which lead to the games rapid growth and popularity. Two days after the Horseshoe meeting Titus resigned from his job at the Las Vegas Hilton and went to work for newly formed Progressive Games, Inc.. Progressive Games started by sharing space with a Las Vegas Sign Company called City Lites which provided signage and jackpot meters for the game. Eventually the company split due to licensing issues in Nevada. Progressive Games moved to Florida and began Global Distribution of the game while Dane Jones, Danny's son, operated the Nevada company for about six months. Eventually, Dane made a deal for the Nevada distribution rights with a company called D.P. Stud. The million dollars that was to be paid to the Jones family for the rights to distribute the game was never paid in full and due to Jones licensing issues in Nevada he was never given just payment. The hardware that went into the Nevada version of the game was illegally knocked off by DP Stud for many years. This is part of the reason the history of the game became so clouded. Dane's fumbled deal ended the Jones family involvement with the game in Nevada. However, the Ft. Lauderdale based Progressive Games went on to distribute the game globally during the next two years. In a major consolidation move Mikhon Gaming bought out Progressive Games and the Nevada distribution company in 1995. The concept patent  for a progressive linked jackpot on a table game, that Titus brought to Caribbean Stud has stood many challenges. It is the Jackpot feature that has made the game a long time success among the new casino games.

The following rules are typical of U.S. casinos, but some of the details the payouts and limits vary from casino to casino.

To play, every player places his ante on a marked spot on the table playing surface the layout where indicated; all ante wagers must be placed prior to the dealer announcing No more bets. Each player also has the option to participate in the progressive jackpot feature of the game. This is also done before the dealer announces no more bets, by dropping a chip in the slot on the table which activates the progressive jackpot light for that seat and that particular hand of play. Each player and the dealer will then receive five cards, face down. The dealer will turn over one of his cards, then push the cards toward the players, after which the players may look at their cards. They may only look at their own cards, and may not discuss what they have with any other players at the table.

Players have the option to play or fold; if they choose to play, they place their bets twice the amount of their respective ante in the bet box. If they choose to fold, they forfeit their ante. After all the players have made their decisions, the dealer reveals his hole cards. The dealer only plays with an ace/king or higher; they then compare their cards to the other players' cards individually, right to left, and the players' hands that beat the dealer's qualifing hand wins.

There are some major rules in Caribbean Stud Poker that must be observed at all times while playing:

Only one hand per player. Players cannot hold or wager on multiple hands at the table.

Players choosing to play the Progressive Payout feature are responsible for ensuring their $1 wager has been inserted into slot and the Indicator Light is ON.

Players may not exchange or communicate information regarding their hands to other players or the dealer. Player violation will result in a dead hand and forfeiture of all wagers.

Incorrect amount of cards to the player constitutes a dead hand or push for that player only.

The decision of the table/casino supervisor is final.

If the dealer is dealt four cards of the five-card hand, the dealer shall deal an additional card to complete the hand. Any other misdeal to the dealer shall result in all hands being void and the cards shall be reshuffled.

Each player shall be required to keep the five cards in full view of the dealer at all times. Once each player has examined his or her cards and placed them face down on the layout, they may not touch the cards again.

If a hole card is exposed prior to the dealer announcing No More Bets, all hands shall be void.